Mathematical Formula for Crypto Futures Betting Game

Pre-Conditions

Main goal is to treat a mathematical formula that will manipulate real-time cryptocurrency pricing data displayed to users in a way that ensures the platform maintains a controlled return on investment while adhering to predefined limits and integrating the system’s fee structure.

1. Real-time Pricing Data:

   • The system will receive live data streams of crypto prices from an external provider

   • This real-time data will be displayed on a trading graph for users to make betting decisions

2. Manual and automatic bets:

   • Users can place manual bets based on their price predictions and close them manually 

   • Users can also place an automatic bets which will be closed automatically when specified profit/loss thresholds or price points are met

   • While placing the bet user should enter a Wager as well as multiplier values which are affecting the bet’s outcome

   • Bet outcome calculation is determined by the regular future betting formula

3. Bet Closure:

   • Bet can be closed in 2 variants:

     1. If bet’s price prediction has exceeded the Bust Price of the bet (calculated with wager, multiplier and entry price of cryptocurrency)

     2. And if bet’s loss reached the limit set by user during Automatic Bet placement

4. Bet Settings:

   • Users may input conditions for automatic betting such as profit/loss ranges for cryptocurrency price or bet’s financial outcome

   • User can close any bet type (i.e. manual and automatic) manually without the need of reaching the set bet’s threshold 

5. Fee Structure:

   • The system will apply additional fees to bets:

     1. Flat Fee: a percentage fee per entry and exit bets

     2. P&L Fee: a fee based on the bet’s profit and loss

Task

Objective:

The mathematician should create a formula which will manipulate the real-time cryptocurrency data displayed to user in a way that achieves the following requirements:

1. Controlled ROI

   • Ensure the ROI (Return on Investment) for users falls within the range of 95% to 97%

   • The remaining percentage should go to the system as a part of platform’s margin

   • The margin return can be calculated within 2-4 weeks of time (no requirement to have a return each second/day, etc.)

2. Price Manipulation

   • The formula should be applied to real-time pricing data to produce slightly edited/faked price data shown on a trading graph

   • The manipulation should be discreet enough to be unnoticeable but successful in achieving required ROI

   • Edited/faked pricing data should be the same for platform’s users

   • The manipulated data should stay within limits to prevent extreme deviations from the actual price data that can call the suspicion from user

     1. The deviation between real-time data and faked can be up to 10% (i.e. rollbit.com platform has a price for BTC around $67,000, and the real-time price is around $62,000)

3. Margins for Bets Analysis

   • The formula must inquire about the analysis of bets data 

   • The formula should adjust the pricing manipulation based on the overall betting activity on the platform ensuring that the total payouts remain within the controlled margin

   • The adjustment should ensure that larger or more frequent bets do not disrupt the controlled ROI and platform’s margin

4. Integration with Fees Structure

   • The formula should account for Flat Fee and P&L Fee, making sure they are applied to the final outcome of the bet

Desired Outcome

The mathematical formula should:

• Manipulate pricing data without exceeding determined boundaries

• Maintain user’s confidence by ensuring that data looks natural and realistic on the trading graph

• Ensure users’ average ROI stays within the 95-97% range with the rest contributing to the platform’s margin

• Adjust manipulation dynamically based on the bets activity and outcome ensuring system-wide profit control

Delivery

• The formula should be provided in a clear mathematical notation with an explanation of how it operates on real-time data and bet analysis

• Any constants or variables used in a formula should be clearly defined (e.g. manipulation thresholds, caps on price deviation, bet volume analysis)