Aleksey Tkachenko
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Prognosis and Sales Planning
ConsultingTo get into the philosophy of the prediction and planning tool it is recommended to first read the article http://analysisdata.net/forecast_or_prediction-choice_of_strategy/
The horizon of forecast is annual, monthly, weekly. Accordingly, the forecast points in the first case will be months (12 points), in the second - week (5 points), in the third - days of the week (7 points).
… The prognosis process includes 3 phases.
Separation of the seasonal component according to historical data
2nd #extrapolation_trend with #ARIMA processes
Analysis of influence and accounting of external factors using #models_regression
The planning process includes
Developing the #Calendar of Events
Forming the worst and best expected scenarios
- development of scenarios depending on the expected risks - price growth, changes at the legislative level, the activity of competitors, ...
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Assessment of office property class
ConsultingThe tool uses the criteria systematisation developed by Colliers International, the largest international consulting company providing a complete range of commercial real estate services.
When filling out the questionnaire, the user is offered to assess the fulfilment of the requirements imposed by one or another criterion in a percentage: the fully fulfilled requirement meets 100%.The criteria of the survey have different degrees of priority.The level of priority is determined by the weight coefficient.Weight coefficients should not in any case be determined exclusively by an expert, and especially on the basis of intuitive conception.In this tool, the task of determining the weight coefficients is realized with the application of the traditional #methode_analysis_hierarchy.According to this method, an expert in the field of real estate is conducting a procedure of coupled comparison of criteria, on a special scale, based on the opinion of the expert.After the study of expert opinions (the number of experts depends on the accuracy of the results) the #matematical_processing of couples comparisons, the result of which are weight coefficients.According to the results of the survey, the estimated object receives a certain average elevated percentage, according to which the object is assigned a class.Experts have determined the boundaries for the assignment of class, according to the percentage of 100 possible
… Class A+ - 95% or more;
Class A - between 85% and 95%;
Class B+ - between 80% and 85%;
Class B - between 60% and 80%;
Class B - between 55% and 60%;
Class C is less than 55%.
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Calculation of the parameters of the product
ConsultingThe main task of this tool is to approach the process of fishing from the position of optimization of the field space, the aim of which is to maximize the presence of the target stock in the shopping hall and as a result to minimize the stock stock.The size of the optimum layout.and e.The explanations in which the goal is achieved are variable values that require definitions:
xij - the width of the placement on some SKU
yij - height of exposure
… zij - depth of exposure
Where
I - number of SKU
J - Number of the Regiment
Let the placement on some SKU on some plate be calculated according to the formula
D (xij, yij, zij) = xij · yij · zij
Then the summary exhibition will have a look
D(x, y, z) = x11 · y11 · z11 + x12 · y12 · z12 + . . + x21 · y21 · z21 + x22 · y22 · z22 + . by max
The purpose of the task is to find such a solution (xij, yij, zij) in which the total placement will be the maximum.In the language of mathematical planning, this function is called the target.In short, mathematical_planning tasks are intended to solve the problem of choosing from the many acceptable plans the most profitable (optimal).In addition to the target function of the ZMP, there is a system of restrictions.In the instrument they are presented as follows:
The placement of the goods under a specific SKU shall not exceed its target stock
Supplement of the product must not be more than 1 times a day
The total placement of the goods shall not exceed the devised field space expressed in linear meters.
To work the optimization model it is necessary to collect the following data on the goods: average sales on the goods, size of the goods (length, height, depth), target stock.It will also require information about the linear sizes of the field space.The first two limits are intended to ensure the correct balance in the representation of goods on the plate based on the shares in sales and the logistics conditions in which the goods are delivered to the store - the minimum delivery party, the frequency of delivery, etc.
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Pricing based on competitor price analysis
ConsultingThe objective of the instrument is smoothly, without loss of marginal income, to bring the price of the enterprise to the optimal level, which lies between the too high price of an interesting enterprise, but not contributing to the formation of demand, and the too low price imposed by the competitor, interesting to the consumer, but not ensuring the profitability of the enterprise.To solve the assigned task, the instrument uses the control limits of significant disadvantages in profitability and demand (COP and COS respectively).The COP and COS parameters are calculated on the basis of #statistical_principles and track significant deviations of current prices from the average level - market prices.The target index is also used in the tool.The target index reflects the management decision on the price positioning of the company on the market relative to the competitors.The target index can be set by each of the competitors, by representation regions, by goods groups.Forecasting the consequences of setting new prices allows the #model_elastice_demand at the price available within the tool.